Durham Region Commercial Real Estate Update: Industrial, Office & Growth Trends for 2026

Commercial real estate across the Greater Toronto Area and Durham Region is continuing to evolve. Industrial conditions are stabilizing, office leasing is improving, and major infrastructure and planning projects are creating new long-term opportunities for business owners, investors, and commercial property owners.

For local businesses, these changes can directly impact lease negotiations, expansion plans, occupancy costs, and decisions around whether to lease or purchase commercial space.

Key Takeaways

GTA industrial conditions are stabilizing after the 2025 supply wave.
Q2 2026 industrial leasing remained positive, with asking rents near $16.22 per sq. ft.
Industrial vacancy was measured at 2.2% by Colliers, while CBRE reported an availability rate of 5.0%.
The office market continued to recover through the first half of 2026.
High-quality Class A and transit-connected office buildings continue to outperform.
The Bowmanville GO Extension, Oshawa transit planning, Highway 407 employment lands, and major healthcare investment are creating long-term commercial opportunities across Durham Region.

GTA Industrial Real Estate Market

The industrial market has moved away from the rapid rent growth seen during the previous cycle and is now entering a more balanced phase.

Leasing activity improved through the first half of 2026, while a slower development pipeline is helping the market absorb the significant amount of new industrial supply that was delivered during 2024 and 2025.

GTA Industrial Market: Q2 2026

Average asking net rent: $16.22 per sq. ft.
Vacancy rate (Colliers): 2.2%
Availability rate (CBRE): 5.0%
Q2 net absorption (CBRE): 1.3 million sq. ft.

Industrial absorption remained positive for a fourth consecutive quarter by Q2 2026, suggesting that the market is gradually moving toward better balance.

Asking rents have also declined from their peak, but the pace of decline has slowed. Colliers reported only a 0.5% quarter-over-quarter decrease in Q2.

At the same time, industrial construction has slowed compared with previous years. Less speculative supply should give existing industrial inventory more time to absorb.

What This Means for Industrial Businesses

For small and mid-sized businesses, headline rent is only one part of the real estate decision.

Businesses should also pay close attention to:

Unit size
Electrical power
Shipping and loading
Parking
Clear height
Expansion rights
Access to major highways
Employee accessibility

If your lease expires within the next 12 to 24 months, it may be worth starting a renewal or relocation analysis now.

The industrial market is more balanced than it was during the 2022 to 2023 peak, which can create more negotiating room for tenants, particularly where landlords are competing to fill space.

GTA Office Real Estate Market

The office recovery that began in late 2025 continued through the first half of 2026.

Toronto has been one of Canada’s stronger markets for positive office absorption, with demand increasingly concentrated in high-quality, amenity-rich, and transit-connected office buildings.

Toronto and GTA Office Market: Q2 2026

Toronto overall vacancy (Colliers): 10.6%
Toronto suburban vacancy (CBRE): 20.2%
Suburban average net asking rent: $18.38 per sq. ft.
National Q2 net absorption: 1.2 million sq. ft.

Canada recorded four consecutive quarters of positive office absorption by Q2 2026, the first such stretch in six years.

Toronto alone recorded more than 523,000 sq. ft. of positive absorption during the quarter.

The strongest demand continues to be for Class A and high-quality office space. Premium downtown space is becoming tighter, reinforcing the ongoing “flight to quality” trend.

What This Means for Office Users

This may still be a useful window for businesses to secure quality office space before the strongest options become more competitive.

When comparing office options, businesses should consider more than rent.

Important factors include:

Parking
Transit access
Build-out costs
Landlord incentives
Operating costs
Employee experience
Building quality
Future expansion capacity

If your lease expires within the next 18 to 24 months, it may be worthwhile to begin a stay-versus-move analysis now.

Lease, Renew, Relocate, or Buy?

For business owners, the right commercial real estate decision depends on the long-term business strategy.

Renew

Renewing may make sense when your current location still works operationally and the landlord is willing to provide competitive lease economics or improvement allowances.

Relocate

Relocating may make sense when a new location can materially improve:

Customer access
Employee access
Layout efficiency
Shipping and receiving
Parking
Visibility
Expansion capacity

Buy

Purchasing commercial real estate may be worth considering when:

Your space requirements are stable
You expect to remain in the location long term
Your business has sufficient capital
You want greater control over the property
You want to build equity through real estate ownership

The best decision is usually driven by the business first and the real estate second. The goal is to avoid committing to a property that restricts growth or creates unnecessary fixed costs.

Durham Region Growth Areas to Watch

Infrastructure, zoning changes, employment lands, and healthcare investment can materially influence long-term commercial property values.

Several areas across Durham Region are worth monitoring.

1. Bowmanville GO Extension and Transit-Oriented Communities

Construction is progressing along the Bowmanville GO Extension corridor.

The project will add approximately 18.7 km of track east of Durham College Oshawa GO and is planned to serve future stations at:

Thornton’s Corners East
Ritson Road
Courtice
Bowmanville

Planned service includes 30-minute peak-direction trains, hourly counter-peak service, and service every two hours on weekends.

Metrolinx projects nearly 17,000 daily trips and approximately 4.9 million annual boardings by 2041.

For commercial real estate, this could support long-term demand for:

Retail
Office
Professional services
Restaurants
Residential development
Transit-oriented mixed-use development

2. Central Oshawa and Thornton’s Corners PMTSAs

Oshawa Council approved Official Plan and zoning amendments in June 2025 to implement Protected Major Transit Station Areas.

These changes are intended to permit greater height, density, and a broader range of uses around future transit station areas.

As of June 2026, the Official Plan amendment still required provincial approval, while the zoning amendment remained under appeal at the Ontario Land Tribunal.

The long-term opportunity remains significant, but investors should confirm property-specific planning status before making acquisition or redevelopment assumptions.

3. Oshawa 407 East Innovation Corridor

The 407 East Innovation Corridor is increasingly moving from long-term planning into active employment-land development.

At 2860 Thornton Road North, a 2026 application proposed an industrial subdivision containing 12 employment blocks, along with roads, stormwater infrastructure, and open-space blocks.

The area benefits from proximity to:

Highway 407
Winchester Road
Thornton Road
Future development north of Oshawa’s existing urban area

This corridor could become increasingly important for industrial, logistics, and employment-related development.

4. Pickering 407 and Seaton Growth Corridor

Pickering continues to update its Official Plan and process development applications along the Highway 407 corridor.

A March 2026 Official Plan Amendment application near Brock Road and Highway 407 proposed broader permissions for:

Residential development
Commercial uses
Employment uses
Institutional uses
Hospital-related development

For investors and business owners, this corridor should be viewed as a long-term mixed-use and employment growth area.

5. Healthcare Investment and Ancillary Commercial Demand

Healthcare investment is another major long-term commercial real estate driver across Durham.

The Bowmanville Hospital redevelopment reached an important procurement milestone in June 2026 when the Request for Proposals stage closed.

The redevelopment is expected to approximately double the hospital in size, with expanded critical care, ambulatory care, and haemodialysis capacity.

Lakeridge Health also continues to protect land in Whitby for a proposed future hospital south of Highway 407 and west of Highway 412.

Healthcare investment can create secondary demand for:

Medical offices
Pharmacies
Imaging
Physiotherapy and rehabilitation
Seniors services
Restaurants and food services
Professional services
Housing for healthcare workers

Why These Growth Areas Matter to Local Businesses

For business owners, infrastructure and development can have a direct impact on both property values and business performance.

Population growth can create more customers within a smaller trade area.

New transit can improve employee recruitment and increase the value of accessible commercial locations.

Healthcare and institutional investment can create stable daytime employment and demand for supporting businesses.

Employment-land development along Highway 407 can also create opportunities for industrial users, suppliers, contractors, professional services firms, and logistics companies.

Planning Your Next Commercial Real Estate Decision

Whether you are:

Renewing an existing commercial lease
Relocating your business
Opening a second location
Purchasing your own commercial property
Expanding your current operation
Investing in commercial real estate

The goal should be to secure the right property on the right terms while maintaining enough flexibility to support future business growth.

At DR Real Estate Group, we assist business owners and investors with:

Commercial lease renewals
Site selection
Industrial and office leasing
Landlord negotiations
Commercial acquisitions
Investment analysis
Commercial due diligence

If you are considering a commercial real estate decision in the Greater Toronto Area or Durham Region, planning early can significantly improve your options and negotiating position.

Saman Habibi REALTOR®, CPA, CA
DR Real Estate Group
647-849-0996
THEDRGROUP.CA

Market statistics reflect Q2 2026 periods ending June 30, 2026 and were reported by CBRE Canada and Colliers Canada. Growth-node updates are based on Metrolinx, City of Oshawa, City of Pickering and Lakeridge Health information available through June 2026. Vacancy and availability are different measures and should not be treated as identical statistics.

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5.0

Based on 37 reviews

Faris El Jundi

2 years ago

Saman Habibi was an incredible guide throughout my year-long search for the perfect home. His patience, knowledge, and genuine dedication stood out as we viewed countless properties and navigated an ever-changing market. He provided endless advice, always tailored to my needs, and never made me feel rushed or pressured. Saman’s professionalism and unwavering support made a complex journey feel manageable, and I couldn’t be happier with the outcome. I highly recommend him to anyone looking for a thoughtful, trustworthy agent who truly puts their clients first.

Joseph Idun

2 years ago

We had an amazing experience working with Riyad to purchase our first home! From start to finish, Riyad was incredibly patient, attentive, and dedicated to making the process as smooth as possible. He took the time to explain every step and made sure we were comfortable and well-informed throughout. His professionalism and commitment to our needs truly made this experience enjoyable. Highly recommend!

Robert Donaghey

2 years ago

Saman was very through throughout the process and went to great lengths to introduce us to the proper contractors to get inspections, etc., completed. We will certainly use Saman as our real estate agent on our future transactions.

Shannon Goddard

2 years ago

If you’re looking for a client centric and honest real estate agent who truly understands the market, Saman Habibi is the agent for you.

We were beyond thrilled with our experience working with Saman Habibi of the Durham Region Group (DR Group). Saman is not only incredibly knowledgeable but also exceptionally trustworthy and honest. He took the time to understand our needs, making us feel completely confident throughout the entire process of finding the perfect home in the Durham Region housing market. In working with us, Saman endured a very lengthy home finding/buying journey as we looked to find our forever home in a very specific location at a very specific price range that quite honestly post pandemic, no longer existed. At the end, Saman was able to find us that forever home in our very specific location and well within our budget. His level of understanding, patience and commitment to us throughout this time was unwavering and we could not be happier.

In buying a home with Saman as our agent, he was fully committed to ensuring that every step was seamless, with his client-centric approach making us feel like his top priority. His background as a Chartered Accountant (CA) and Certified Public Accountant (CPA), arms him with a very strong analytical and financial skillset that helped us determine the right market value for our buy making the whole process more simple and less stressful.

When it came to selling our house, Saman’s deep understanding of real estate trends got us the best results possible. He not only sold our home above asking price (+10%) but did so in a remarkably short timeframe (1 day) at a time when home sales in the Durham Region area were declining YOY and at an annual low. His analytical and strategic approach coupled with a strong pulse on the market was paramount in delivering these results.

His honest and positive demeanor, attention to detail and genuine fortitude in working hard to get us the home we wanted within budget is what I believe sets him apart from other agents. Simply put, everyone in the transaction likes working with Saman. You feel good being represented by an agent who conducts business the way Saman does.

If you're a first time buyer who needs guidance or an experienced buyer/seller looking for a trustworthy, honest, and 100% client-focused real estate agent in Durham Region, we highly recommend Saman Habibi of the DR Group. You'd be hard pressed to find a better agent.

-S.Goddard

Danele Felthman

2 years ago

I’ve been working with Riyad over the last year and I cannot recommend him enough. His knowledge of the industry, individual housing markets, and strategies are a huge asset to anyone looking to buy or sell. He also actively participates in the community he believes in.

Diane Hansen

2 years ago

My partner and myself were first time home buyers and Will helped finding our first home. Will was very helpful, we didn’t feel pressured into buying anything, he was honest and gave us more insite into the home buying process. We would recommend him as a realtor to any of our family or friends.

Aaron Carlo Rodriguez

2 years ago

Riyad is the best in the game. Guaranteed. Very professional & courteous from the get go. Got us the best price for both selling & buying. I would 100% recommend Riyad to anyone that's looking to sell their property or purchasing a new home.

SHARON ISEMAN

2 years ago

From day one Saman was tremendously helpful. We didn't want to remain in our home while it was getting ready to be sold and after the For Sale sign went up. He found us a number of places to consider and took us to view them. He made useful suggestions regarding preparing the house and recommended workmen to do the jobs at reasonable cost. Regarding his personality, he was always very courteous, professional, accommodating to our time and tastes and cheerful. All in all, Saman is a hardworking, quiet-spoken man and certainly got the job done to our complete satisfaction. I would recommend him to anyone.

Ashley Connor

2 years ago

Working with Riyad to sell our first home in South-East Ajax was a positive experience. His professionalism, local market knowledge, and commitment helped make the process smooth and manageable. Riyad provided valuable assistance in preparing our home for listing with his network of contractors, ensuring it was ready to attract potential buyers.

He guided us through each step, allowing us to quickly sell our home with a profitable outcome. We appreciate his efforts and would recommend him to others looking to buy or sell their home.

Maxine D

2 years ago

It was a pleasure working with Will from DR Group! I've worked with him multiple times and referred him as well. I listed my home with Will and he was very personable, professional, knowledgeable and paid close attention to details. He was always prompt in responding to my messages. I also like the fact that Will is also very involve in his community, promoting local businesses! He is a pleasure to work with and I highly recommend him.

Kayla Hong

2 years ago

Saman is a phenomenal agent and super easy to work with. What we find most valuable is he's investor-friendly and has that valuable pair of eyes to identify both the advantages and issues with the properties we saw. Over our 'longer than expected' home shopping journey, he took us to see many properties and was always very patient to explain things to us---very new home buyers who also are interested in having investment properties. He knows Durham Region like the back of his hands and is always able to tell us which neighorhoods are more desirable and which might not be quite as much, as he's a long-time Durham resident himself. So don't hesitate to work with Saman! He's the guy who will make your home shopping and selling a breeze! Cannot wait to have more work done with him in the future!

Dave Smith

2 years ago

If you ever need a excellent realtor than you need to go with the best Saman Habibi. He assisted us from pillar to post and got us more then we listed for. Saman is the MAN.

Cheryl L

2 years ago

I am so glad I chose Will as my real estate agent. His professionalism, knowledge and expertise combined with his patient approach made a very stressful situation very smooth and successful. Will went above and beyond to support me. He was always available and communicated each step of the process to ensure I understand and addressed all of my questions. I highly recommend Will to anyone looking for top-notch real estate services.

The ODonohue

2 years ago

Re: Riyad Ali. I have done 13 real estate transactions over the past 50 years. Riyad Ali is by far the best agent ever. He offered no hard sell, a smart marketing plan, consistent feedback and excellent ongoing information. Riyad, You're an A+, A+ John

Jay Dart

2 years ago

Romi Raina

2 years ago

Working with Will was a total pleasure. He is very approachable and easy to talk to. I was impressed with his attention to detail and diligent work ethic.

Nikki Chamberlain

2 years ago

My husband and I have been lucky enough to work with Will selling our home as well as purchasing our new one. From the moment we meet him we just clicked. He took the time to really listen to our needs and always made us feel like a priority. Would definitely recommend working with Will and his team!!

Dino Kalo

2 years ago

We had the pleasure of working with Riyad, and I must say he was an exceptional realtor. Riyads unwavering dedication, quick responsiveness, and genuine kindness truly stood out. He was a strong advocate for us throughout the process, and his assistance was invaluable. I highly recommend Riyad to anyone looking for a realtor who goes above and beyond.

Nikki Chamberlain

2 years ago

Recently had the pleasure of working with Riyad and Will. From our initial conversations and throughout the whole process they made sure they were readily available to answer any and all questions. They always made us feel like a priority and accommodated our last minute requests to go view properties. We used Riyad and Will not only to sell our house but also to purchase our new home since our experience was so amazing. Definitely recommend these guys!!

Alex Cyr

3 years ago

I'm incredibly grateful for Will at, Right at Home Realty. His guidance and support have been instrumental in my growth as a real estate professional. Will exemplifies professionalism, expertise, and genuine care. Highly recommended for anyone seeking a dedicated and knowledgeable partner in their real estate journey. Thank you, Will, for your continued mentorship!

Di Ane

3 years ago

Selling and buying a property can be an intimidating process, but working with Saman made it a breeze. I was looking for someone I could trust, someone who knows the market inside out, and Saman exceeded my expectations. He is a true expert in his field, with a proven track record of success.

Throughout the sale of my property, Saman went above and beyond to ensure that everything was taken care of. Even though I was 9 months pregnant at the time, he was patient and forward-thinking, always considering my unique circumstances. His advice was sound and he took care of every detail, leaving me with peace of mind.

I cannot recommend Saman highly enough. If you're looking for a real estate professional who will go the extra mile for you, look no further. I look forward to working with Saman in the future.

Alex Henderson

3 years ago

I have personally known Saman for nearly twenty years and have worked with him professionally since 2021. I can say with confidence that Saman genuinely cares about his clients, and utilizes his expertise as both a realtor and chartered accountant as a means of providing excellent service time and time again.

Mika

3 years ago

I've been working with Riyad to purchase my first home and honestly, it's been such a great experience. He is patient, kind, knowledgeable and goes the extra mile to ensure that you are informed of your decisions and know all possible options. Prior to working with Riyad, I was really overwhelmed with the current market and knowing where to start but Riyad has helped guide me and answers my many questions. He has a really good network and is connected to all the right people that you would need when making a home purchase. I feel confident and excited about my decision!

Christopher Ioannou

3 years ago

Saman is one of a kind. Super knowledgeable, always came prepared to showings and was able to answer any questions we had. We tasked him with purchasing our home and selling our condo and he executed flawlessly. Top dollar for a condo in this market is unheard of all while securing our house way under budget. You can stop your search for a realtor here..he's worth it..and I don't say that too often.

Valerie Venditti

3 years ago

Riyad was wonderful at both selling our home and finding our new home that met all the requirements. Riyad is always readily available and was so attentive and took the time to explain everything in detail . We found that Riyad was very knowledgeable, professional and dedicated in helping us find the perfect home. He is very accommodating and ensured that we were educated on any potential risks of any purchases of certain properties. Thank you so much, Riyad for all your help. We are incredibly grateful!!!

Sydney Atkinson

3 years ago

Saman came highly recommended to us and we could not have been in better hands! He is professional and extremely knowledgeable of the real estate market. In our initial meeting for selling our home, he was very prepared and proposed different marketing strategies that proved to be very successful. Our concerns and questions about listing and timing were addressed promptly. Saman took the time understand our goals and expectations and built an effective strategy which made the entire process seamless. He is a very strong communicator and it is reflected in his negotiating skills.
We highly recommend Saman. It was a genuine pleasure working with him!

Philippe Alberigo

7 years ago

I attended one of Saman's First Time Home Buyers Seminar. I thought Saman did an excellent Job explaining the new mortgage stress test rules, steps to take when purchasing your first house & options people have to enter into the housing market. Saman understands the Durham market & brings a different approach being a Charter Accountant. I will be using Saman as my agent for my next purchase.